A recent survey from J.P. Morgan—the “2025 Business Leaders Outlook”—highlights a surge in strategic optimism among midsize U.S. firms. According to the data, 53% of these companies are preparing to launch new products or services, with 43% planning to pursue partnerships or joint investments. Approximately one-third are focused on optimizing their current portfolios, while similar proportions aim to expand their presence domestically or through mergers and acquisitions . These figures reflect a concerted pivot toward growth and innovation.
Survey insights reveal that 51% of midsize firms intend to increase staffing in 2025, while 41% expect to maintain current headcount. Only around 8% foresee workforce reductions . This is a notable turnaround from recent years and underscores growing confidence in sustainable expansion—marking a shift from the cautious retrenchment that dominated through much of the prior decade.
Despite ongoing economic pressures—77% of respondents report rising costs—this figure has improved from 91% in 2023. Interest-rate concerns have also cooled, with 26% listing them as a top worry, down from 36% in the prior year . Together, these trends suggest that business leaders are shifting from defensive strategies to proactive ones, embracing calculated risk to pursue innovation, strategic partnerships, and market expansion.
Confidence in the U.S. economy stands in stark contrast with global uncertainty. While only about 29% of respondents are optimistic about the international landscape, 60% say they have confidence in their local economy, and 75% are optimistic about their own company’s prospects . This domestic optimism shapes their forward-looking strategies as they continue navigating inflationary and labor concerns.
Overall, nearly three-quarters of midsize firms anticipate revenue growth in 2025, and about two-thirds expect profit increases. The appetite for launching new products and services has remained largely steady compared to 2024, mirroring an ongoing focus on innovation . Strategic partnerships and investment also remain central priorities, with 43% indicating plans in this area.
These intentions are buttressed by real-world behavior: many businesses are enhancing workforce capacities and digitizing operations. With half planning to hire and small businesses increasingly adopting AI tools (48%), firms are investing in human capital and technological capabilities.
J.P. Morgan’s head of research, Ginger Chambless, commented on the striking shift: after weathering inflation and interest pressures, businesses are reorienting toward opportunity, signaling that their strategic focus has moved past recession concerns. The Federal Reserve’s rate cuts in late 2024—the first since 2020—and indicators that more easing may follow appear to underpin this confident outlook.
Despite this positive turn, executives are not ignoring challenges. Labor shortages, supply chain issues, and rising costs still weigh heavily: nearly half of companies pointed to labor problems, retention, and recruitment as major concerns . Geopolitical issues—such as international tariffs and global competition—also prompted caution among some firms even as they pursue new geographic markets .
At a recent CEO Workforce Forum hosted by the Business Roundtable, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon reinforced this balanced approach. He cautioned that business cycles include inevitable economic disruptions and urged executives against reactive behavior. Instead, Dimon emphasized continuing strategic investments—especially in workforce and technology—even amid uncertainty .
This measured stance encapsulates the mindset reflected in the report: leaders are seizing growth opportunities—new offerings, strategic alliances, geographic expansion, and workforce investment—while incorporating disciplined cost management and risk awareness. For midsize firms, 2025 appears set to be defined by innovation-driven expansion, responsibly anchored by pragmatism.
In short, the “2025 Business Leaders Outlook” signals a turning point. With companies orienting toward growth, diversification, and investment—backed by confidence in the domestic economy—leadership strategies are evolving. The current environment appears characterized by bold ambition and thoughtful execution, embodying a more optimistic and dynamic U.S. business landscape.
