As mid‑2025 unfolds, U.S. business leaders are striking a balance between confidence in their own firms and caution about broader economic conditions. J.P. Morgan’s 2025 Business Leaders Outlook Pulse Survey, conducted in June with 718 middle‑market executives, reveals that optimism about the national economy has halved—from 65% in January to just 32% in June—while confidence in global economic prospects dropped from 29% to 15%.
Despite these declines, 58% of leaders remain optimistic about their own companies’ performance, and 85% expect their firms to deliver steady or improved results through year‑end. Expectations are similarly upbeat for sales and profits, with 78% anticipating stable or higher revenues and 73% seeing profits holding or increasing. Leadership decisions reflect this resilience: 40% of executives are making no changes to strategic plans, while 14% have accelerated theirs, and only 23% have postponed initiatives into 2026.
External headwinds are reshaping the landscape. Recession expectations have climbed sharply: 32% of respondents now anticipate or believe the U.S. is already in a recession, up from 14% six months earlier. Meanwhile, 44% report delaying business plans, citing policy uncertainty (74%), market volatility and shifts in customer demand (37% each), and geopolitical events (35%) as major influencing factors. The top challenges firms identify are uncertain economic conditions (55%), tariffs (41%), and sluggish revenue or sales growth (41%).
Matt Sable, co‑head of J.P. Morgan Commercial Banking, emphasized that “businesses are operating with caution” but remain determined, noting the ability of leaders to recalibrate strategies while maintaining service to clients and communities.
This picture aligns with broader themes in leadership and market sentiment. At the same time as leaders express guarded confidence, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has issued warnings of rising economic turbulence. He cited risks from tariffs, fiscal deficits, inflation, policy fluctuations, and geopolitical strain—remarking that U.S. markets may be underestimating potential rate hikes. Dimon also raised concern over potential stagflation—a combination of inflation, slow growth, and unemployment—and advised vigilance in navigating an uncertain macroeconomic environment.
In response to these conditions, many business executives are prioritizing disciplined investment in artificial intelligence (AI) transformation and operational resilience, seeking adaptive growth even amid volatility. While the J.P. Morgan survey itself didn’t quantify AI investment directly, industry sources from Deloitte and Mercer report that middle market firms increasingly view AI integration and supply‑chain strengthening as strategic imperatives for cushioning risk and unlocking competitive advantage.
With leaders broadly optimistic about company-level outcomes but increasingly wary of systemic risk, the mid‑2025 outlook embodies cautious optimism: firms are pushing ahead strategically, but with heightened attention to agility, risk‑management, and external uncertainty.
By mid‑year, the picture for U.S. middle‑market business leaders is clear: confidence in internal performance remains strong, but external economic sentiment has cooled significantly—prompting many to move carefully, delay plans, or accelerate selectively. Their resilience is evident in consistent expectations for growth in sales, profits, and staffing, even as macro concerns loom large.
