A recent mid‑year Business Leaders Outlook Pulse Survey by J.P. Morgan reveals a notable shift in leadership priorities among U.S. middle‑market executives—particularly toward innovation and strategic partnerships in 2025.
The survey, conducted online between June 4 and June 18, 2025, gathered responses from 718 executives at U.S. companies with annual revenues ranging from $20 million to $500 million. While sentiment regarding the national economy has dropped—from 65% in January to just 32% by June—more than half of these leaders remain confident in their own businesses. Despite global and local economic optimism declining to 15% and 35% respectively, 58% of respondents expressed a positive outlook for their company’s performance.
Most business leaders anticipate stable or improving financial results. About 78% expect revenue and sales to hold steady or grow, and 73% foresee similar trends in profitability. Even though expectations of a recession have increased—rising to 25% from 8% earlier in the year—a significant majority (71%) still do not expect a recession in 2025.
This cautious optimism is reflected in strategic planning. While 44% of companies report delaying certain initiatives due to economic pressures, 40% continue on schedule and 14% have accelerated their plans. Economic uncertainty remains the top concern among executives, followed closely by the impact of tariffs and revenue pressures. The biggest influences on changing strategies include policy uncertainty, market volatility, and shifting customer preferences.
Innovation remains a key area of focus. According to the survey, 53% of mid‑market executives plan to launch new products or services in 2025. Another 43% are exploring strategic partnerships, alliances, or joint ventures to drive growth and enhance resilience. These efforts underscore a broader push toward proactive leadership rather than reactive cost-cutting.
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Despite external challenges, 85% of companies expect to maintain or improve their performance this year. Around 37% plan to increase hiring, and 45% aim to keep headcounts steady. This confidence highlights the adaptability of business leaders, with many adjusting strategies to remain competitive in a volatile landscape.
Matt Sable, Co‑Head of J.P. Morgan Commercial Banking, noted that businesses are operating with increased caution but remain determined to deliver for their clients and communities. His comments reflect a wider trend of recalibrated leadership approaches—leaders are staying nimble, responsive, and focused on long-term value creation.
The economic environment in 2025 continues to be shaped by global instability, U.S. trade policy, and evolving consumer behavior. In this context, executives are increasingly prioritizing diversification, innovation, and strategic agility. These measures are not only safeguarding companies against downturns but also setting them up for long-term success.
In sum, the survey highlights a shift in mindset among U.S. middle‑market leaders—from uncertainty to action. They are leaning into innovation, forging new alliances, and preparing to seize opportunities, regardless of broader economic conditions. This forward-thinking approach signals that innovation-driven leadership is fast becoming the norm across the American business landscape.
